Who will vault 6.40m (21’) men and 5.50m (18’)

[Robert schmitt]

I think 18' is definatly possible. As soon as someone with the physical, kinestetic, mental capabilities decides to become a pole vaulter and not a sprinter, hurdeler or long jumper etc...

[agapit]

I think 18' is definatly possible. As soon as someone with the physical, kinestetic, mental capabilities decides to become a pole vaulter and not a sprinter, hurdeler or long jumper etc...

I agree with you.
agapit

[vaulter894]

When it comes to being able to run an 8.9 m/s for a girl at the box, isn't Stacy Dragila close. I thought I read somewhere she ran 8.5 m/s, I will have to look it up though. I definitely agree with Robert and agapit if a girl possess all those qualities then 18ft is possible.

[Lax PV]

We actually just were discussing the differences between men and women in my exercise physiology class the other day.

History has shown that after the 'developmental' phase of an event, some woman comes along to set a record that is about 10% different than that of the men's.

Personally, I think this developmental phase will take about 25 to 30 years, but I would be willing to bet that women will get there. 90% of men puts the bar at about 5.36... like 17'7" or so...

I think women will get to 5.10 by the 2012 games, after that... it might take a while, but its not imposible...


who's going to be the next guy over 20 though???

[agapit]

When it comes to being able to run an 8.9 m/s for a girl at the box, isn't Stacy Dragila close. I thought I read somewhere she ran 8.5 m/s, I will have to look it up though. I definitely agree with Robert and agapit if a girl possess all those qualities then 18ft is possible.

Thanks for rational thinking.
agapit

[agapit]

We actually just were discussing the differences between men and women in my exercise physiology class the other day.

History has shown that after the 'developmental' phase of an event, some woman comes along to set a record that is about 10% different than that of the men's.

Personally, I think this developmental phase will take about 25 to 30 years, but I would be willing to bet that women will get there. 90% of men puts the bar at about 5.36... like 17'7" or so...

I think women will get to 5.10 by the 2012 games, after that... it might take a while, but its not imposible...


who's going to be the next guy over 20 though???

I believe Mack (over 50% chance) has 2 years to do it. He has some reserves in the take-off efficiency and the second part of the vault (learn to accelerate his natural swing with the post take-off left arm action). Toby (over 65% chance), but he must learn to manage his competition performance and the same is true on the second part of the vault.

The height progression for 20’

5.70 (18’8â€Â

[dj]

several years ago i did a comparsion

top 10...men's 100m...long jump...pole vault too and average top 10 pv=19-4 for men

womens 100m...long jump to pv? = 17'3" for women... the answer to the womens potential at the time...... that math was done when the women's record was 14'10

on t-macks 5.90 jump at the trials he cover the last 6 steps, 12.50meter in 1.37sec.. 9.12 meter per sec..

on the "MID" Chart data i have collected from the men over the years (some women) ....to jump 18' the athlete, man or women, needs a "MID" of 52 to 53 feet and cover the last 6 steps in 1.40/1.39sec or 8.5 to 8.7 meters per second.. and grip approx..15'6"... sorry for the feet instead of meters. i'm "old school"

dj

[agapit]

several years ago i did a comparsion

top 10...men's 100m...long jump...pole vault too and average top 10 pv=19-4 for men

womens 100m...long jump to pv? = 17'3" for women... the answer to the womens potential at the time...... that math was done when the women's record was 14'10

on t-macks 5.90 jump at the trials he cover the last 6 steps, 12.50meter in 1.37sec.. 9.12 meter per sec..

on the "MID" Chart data i have collected from the men over the years (some women) ....to jump 18' the athlete, man or women, needs a "MID" of 52 to 53 feet and cover the last 6 steps in 1.40/1.39sec or 8.5 to 8.7 meters per second.. and grip approx..15'6"... sorry for the feet instead of meters. i'm "old school"

dj

Depending on how you measure speed (beams, video, radar, hand time) it will have an error. I have measured t-mack’s speed on the last 6 in practice it was as you said 1.35-1.37 (timing by hand from left foot on the mid to left on the take off), however there is a substantial error build into it. I think most accurate would be high frame video camera not a regular consumer camera. I believe t-mack runs at 9.4-9.5 m/s in his best attempts on the last 5m. It is hard to measure last 5m by hand.

And you are absolutely right by saying that 8.7 is good enough for some man for 18’, but for a women, in my opinion, due to the lesser strength to body ratio 18’ would be at the higher speeds closer to 8.9 m/s. Remember most men with 18’ PR can push speed over 9 m/s only the slowest 18’ ers run 8.7 m/s. That is why my estimate is 8.9 m/s for a woman on 18’.

[dj]

i agree on all accounts.. the last 5 meters is covered in a faster mps..than my “MIDâ€Â

[Erica]

I can see that comparisons between men's and women's long jump and hundred meter are being used to predict the potential height for women' pole vault based on the men's heights.

However, both the long jump and hundred meter do not specifically use core and upper body strenght in the event.* The pole vault does to a large extent. Wouldn't it be benefitial to also use a comparison to events that are more power events? The javelin seems like it should be more closely related to the pole vault than the 100m or long jump in the physical aspect. If you compare world record percentages in the throws, men and women are not as close as they are in the speed events.** I think we are overestimating the potential of women because we are not looking at the sport as wholistically as we should be.


*I am not saying that these event do not use core and upperbody strength, they just use it to a lesser extent.
**I am aware that you have to account for the differences between the weights of the men's and women's implements thrown.

[dj]

the 100meters and the long jump give us the absolute best comparitive data.. all events at the level we are discussing use speed, athletic ability and core body strength..

dj

[agapit]

the 100meters and the long jump give us the absolute best comparitive data.. all events at the level we are discussing use speed, athletic ability and core body strength..

dj

in addition the upper body strength becomes less relevant factor if you think of using natural swing as it is described in 6.40 Model. There are female gymnasts who would do things that no men vaulters could come close.